Investment opportunities exist worldwide.
However, the unpredictability of global stock returns makes it extremely challenging to identify which markets are likely to outperform
How can I deal with this kind of uncertainty?
First, you should remember that it’s challenging, at best, to predict a country’s returns by looking at the past, as shown by the performance of global markets since 2005 (see below). Over the past 20 years, annual returns in 22 developed markets varied widely from year to year. (Each color represents a different country, and each column is sorted from the highest-performing country to the lowest.)
Annual returns for developed markets, ranked (2005-2024)
Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
In USD. MSCI country indices (net dividends) for each country listed. Does not include Israel, which MSCI classified as an emerging market prior to May 2010. MSCI data © MSCI 2025, all rights reserved.
Two examples help make the point well:
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New Zealand posted the highest developed markets return in 2019—but the lowest in 2021.
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The US ranked in the top two for annualized returns over the entire 20 years but finished first in the country rankings just once over that period. In eight calendar years, it was in the lower half of performers.
So what can I do?
Investors can benefit from understanding that they don’t need to predict which countries will provide the best returns over the next quarter, next year, or the next five years. Why? Holding equities from markets around the world, rather than just a few countries or a single one, positions investors to potentially capture higher returns where they arise, while outperformance in one market can offset lower returns elsewhere. In other words, a globally diversified portfolio can yield more reliable outcomes over time.
